Introducing doubt in Bayesian model comparison

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dc.creatorStarkman, Glenn D
dc.creatorTrotta, Roberto
dc.creatorVaudrevange, Pascal M
dc.date2008-11-14
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T10:18:39Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T10:18:39Z
dc.descriptionThere are things we know, things we know we don't know, and then there are things we don't know we don't know. In this paper we address the latter two issues in a Bayesian framework, introducing the notion of doubt to quantify the degree of (dis)belief in a model given observational data in the absence of explicit alternative models. We demonstrate how a properly calibrated doubt can lead to model discovery when the true model is unknown.
dc.description10 pages, 5 figures
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0811.2415
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0811.2415
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/174256
dc.subjectData Analysis, Statistics and Probability
dc.subjectAstrophysics
dc.titleIntroducing doubt in Bayesian model comparison
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