Predictability of El Niño as a Nonlinear Stochastic Limit Cycle

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dc.creatorPanja, Debabrata
dc.creatorBurgers, Gerrit
dc.date2006-12-19
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T07:36:23Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T07:36:23Z
dc.descriptionThe El Niño phenomenon, synonymously El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a cyclic or a sporadic event, or whether its apparently random behaviour can be explained by stochastic dynamics have remained matters of debate. Herein ENSO is viewed, unconventionally, as a two-dimensional dynamical system on a desktop. The main features of ENSO: irregularity, interannual variability, and the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña are captured, simply, comprehensibly, quickly and cheaply, in a nonlinear stochastic limit cycle paradigm. Its predictability for ENSO compares remarkably well with that of the best state-of-the-art complex models from the European and American meteorological centres. Additionally, for the first time, by analyzing subsurface Equatorial Pacific data since 1960, this model finds that long-term variations are not caused by ENSO itself, but by external sources.
dc.description29 pages, 13 figures, 1 table, submitted to Climate Dynamics
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0612043
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0612043
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/120408
dc.subjectChaotic Dynamics
dc.subjectAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics
dc.titlePredictability of El Niño as a Nonlinear Stochastic Limit Cycle
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