Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes

Beskos, Alexandros; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros; Roberts, Gareth

Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes

Authors

Beskos, Alexandros

Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros

Roberts, Gareth

Description

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo method for maximum likelihood inference in the context of discretely observed diffusion processes. The method gives unbiased and a.s.\@ continuous estimators of the likelihood function for a family of diffusion models and its performance in numerical examples is computationally efficient. It uses a recently developed technique for the exact simulation of diffusions, and involves no discretization error. We show that, under regularity conditions, the Monte Carlo MLE converges a.s. to the true MLE. For datasize $n\to\infty$, we show that the number of Monte Carlo iterations should be tuned as $\mathcal{O}(n^{1/2})$ and we demonstrate the consistency properties of the Monte Carlo MLE as an estimator of the true parameter value.
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS550 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)