Will the announced influenza pandemic really happen?

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dc.creatorSchinazi, Rinaldo B.
dc.date2008-07-22
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T09:52:08Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T09:52:08Z
dc.descriptionWe propose two simple probability models to compute the probability of an influenza pandemic. Under a random walk model the probability that all pandemics between times 0 and 300 occur by time 150 is 1/2. Under a Poisson model with mean inter arrival time of 30 years the probability that no pandemic occurs during at least 60 years is 14%. These probabilities are much higher than generally perceived. So yes the next influenza pandemic will happen but maybe much later than generally thought.
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3524
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3524
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/165488
dc.subjectProbability
dc.subjectPopulations and Evolution
dc.subject60K35, 92D30
dc.titleWill the announced influenza pandemic really happen?
dc.typetext

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