The 2006-2008 Oil Bubble and Beyond

Simple item page
dc.creatorSornette, D.
dc.creatorWoodard, R.
dc.creatorZhou, W. -X.
dc.date2008-06-06
dc.date2008-07-22
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T12:37:09Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T12:37:09Z
dc.descriptionWe present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation!
dc.description4 pages; 4 figures, discussion of the oil supply-demand view point and uncertainties
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0806.1170
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0806.1170
dc.identifierPhysica A 388, 1571-1576 (2009)
dc.identifierdoi:10.1016/j.physa.2009.01.011
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/218337
dc.subjectGeneral Finance
dc.subjectData Analysis, Statistics and Probability
dc.subjectPhysics and Society
dc.titleThe 2006-2008 Oil Bubble and Beyond
dc.typetext

Files

Collections

arXiv