Martingales and first passage times of AR(1) sequences
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Using the martingale approach we find sufficient conditions for exponential boundedness of first passage times over a level for ergodic first order autoregressive sequences (AR(1)). Further, we prove a martingale identity to be used in obtaining explicit bounds for the expectation of first passage times.
To appear in a Special Volume of Stochastics: An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes (http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=journal%26issn=1744-2508) edited by N.H. Bingham and I.V. Evstigneev which will be reprinted as Volume 57 of the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm)
To appear in a Special Volume of Stochastics: An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes (http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=journal%26issn=1744-2508) edited by N.H. Bingham and I.V. Evstigneev which will be reprinted as Volume 57 of the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm)