Current log-periodic view on future world market development

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dc.creatorDrozdz, Stanislaw
dc.creatorKwapien, Jaroslaw
dc.creatorOswiecimka, Pawel
dc.creatorSpeth, Josef
dc.date2008-02-27
dc.date2008-06-24
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T12:05:42Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T12:05:42Z
dc.descriptionApplicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraints on the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. A termination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. In particular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase is expected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal is detected at the turn of March/April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least a serious correction to begin. In the present extended version some predictions for the future oil price are incorporated. In particular a serious correction on this market is expected to start in the coming days.
dc.descriptionpresented by S. Drozdz at FENS2007 conference, 10 pages, 6 Figs, an extended version with the oil market included (Fig.7)
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0802.4043
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0802.4043
dc.identifierActa Physica Polonica A 114, 539 (2008)
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/208445
dc.subjectStatistical Finance
dc.subjectPhysics and Society
dc.titleCurrent log-periodic view on future world market development
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