Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

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dc.creatorJewson, Stephen
dc.creatorLaepple, Thomas
dc.creatorO'Shay, Adam
dc.creatorPenzer, Jeremy
dc.creatorBellone, Enrica
dc.creatorNzerem, Kechi
dc.date2007-01-15
dc.date2007-01-29
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T07:43:21Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T07:43:21Z
dc.descriptionOne possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.
dc.descriptionGoing from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paper
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/122791
dc.subjectAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics
dc.titlePredicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions
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