The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

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dc.creatorGonzalez, Alvaro
dc.creatorGomez, Javier B.
dc.creatorPacheco, Amalio F.
dc.date2005-02-09
dc.date2007-05-16
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T08:01:46Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T08:01:46Z
dc.descriptionWe illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.
dc.descriptionFinal version of the published paper, with an erratum and an unpublished appendix with some proofs
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0502048
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0502048
dc.identifierAmerican Journal of Physics, Vol. 73, No. 10, October 2005, p. 946-952 [Erratum in Vol. 75, No. 3, March 2007, p 286]
dc.identifierdoi:10.1119/1.2013310 10.1119/1.2426356
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/129015
dc.subjectGeophysics
dc.subjectData Analysis, Statistics and Probability
dc.titleThe occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault
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