Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

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dc.creatorJewson, Stephen
dc.creatorAmbaum, Maarten
dc.creatorZiehmann, Christine
dc.date2004-02-05
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T05:51:11Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T05:51:11Z
dc.descriptionThe ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0402027
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0402027
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/85939
dc.subjectAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics
dc.titleSingular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty
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