On the elicitation of continuous, symmetric, unimodal distributions
Abstract
Description
In this brief note, we highlight some difficulties that can arise when fitting a continuous, symmetric, unimodal distribution to a set of expert's judgements. A simple analysis shows it is possible to fit a Cauchy distribution to an expert's beliefs when their beliefs actually follow a normal distribution. This example stresses the need for careful distribution fitting and for feedback to the expert about what the fitted distribution implies about their beliefs.
Submitted to the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)
Submitted to the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)