Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature: theoretical comparisons of direct and indirect approaches

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dc.creatorJewson, Stephen
dc.creatorLaepple, Thomas
dc.creatorNzerem, Kechi
dc.creatorPenzer, Jeremy
dc.date2007-01-15
dc.date2007-01-29
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T07:43:21Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T07:43:21Z
dc.descriptionWe consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and use the fitted regression relation to predict future landfalling hurricane numbers given predicted SSTs. We call this the direct approach. Second, one might regress \emph{basin} hurricane numbers onto historical SSTs, estimate the proportion of basin hurricanes that make landfall, and use the fitted regression relation and estimated proportion to predict future landfalling hurricane numbers. We call this the \emph{indirect} approach. Which of these two methods is likely to work better? We answer this question for two simple models. The first model is reasonably realistic, but we have to resort to using simulations to answer the question in the context of this model. The second model is less realistic, but allows us to derive a general analytical result.
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701176
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701176
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/122793
dc.subjectAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics
dc.titlePredicting landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature: theoretical comparisons of direct and indirect approaches
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