Can we believe in high climate sensitivity?
| dc.creator | Annan, J. D. | |
| dc.creator | Hargreaves, J. C. | |
| dc.date | 2006-12-11 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-07T07:35:00Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-07T07:35:00Z | |
| dc.description | The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in recent years, with most of them assigning significant probability to extremely high sensitivity, such as P(S>6C)>5%. However, closer examination reveals that these estimates are based on a number of implausible implicit assumptions. We explain why these estimates cannot be considered credible and therefore have no place in the decision-making process. In fact, when basic probability theory is applied and reasonable assumptions are made, much greater confidence in a moderate value for S (~2.5C) is easily justified, with S very unlikely to be as high as 4.5C. | |
| dc.identifier | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612094 | |
| dc.identifier | http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612094 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/119965 | |
| dc.subject | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics | |
| dc.title | Can we believe in high climate sensitivity? | |
| dc.type | text |