Predicting future duration from present age: Revisiting a critical assessment of Gott's rule

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dc.creatorCaves, Carlton M.
dc.date2008-06-22
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T09:46:04Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T09:46:04Z
dc.descriptionGott has promulgated a rule for making probabilistic predictions of the future duration of a phenomenon based on the phenomenon's present age [Nature, Vol. 363, 315 (1993)]. I show that the two usual methods for deriving Gott's rule are flawed. Nothing licenses indiscriminate use of Gott's rule as a predictor of future duration. It should only be used when the phenomenon in question has no identifiable time scales.
dc.descriptionThis paper is being posted to the archive as it seeks a home for publication
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0806.3538
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0806.3538
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/163405
dc.subjectAstrophysics
dc.subjectGeneral Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
dc.subjectData Analysis, Statistics and Probability
dc.subjectPopular Physics
dc.titlePredicting future duration from present age: Revisiting a critical assessment of Gott's rule
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