A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

Pilla, Ramani S.; Loader, Catherine; Taylor, Cyrus

A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

Authors

Pilla, Ramani S.

Loader, Catherine

Taylor, Cyrus

Description

We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.
5 pages, 4 figures