A Mechanism for Pockets of Predictability in Complex Adaptive Systems

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dc.creatorAndersen, Jorgen Vitting
dc.creatorSornette, Didier
dc.date2004-10-29
dc.date2004-11-25
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T12:07:02Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T12:07:02Z
dc.descriptionWe document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out-of-sample on synthetic minority and majority games as well as on real financial time series. The surprising large frequency of these prediction days implies a collective organization of agents and of their strategies which condense into transitional herding regimes.
dc.description5 pages, 3 figures, error corrected
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0410762
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0410762
dc.identifierEurophys. Lett., 70 (5), 697-703 (2005)
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/208835
dc.subjectStatistical Mechanics
dc.subjectTrading and Market Microstructure
dc.titleA Mechanism for Pockets of Predictability in Complex Adaptive Systems
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