The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda
| dc.creator | Chowell, Gerardo | |
| dc.creator | Hengartner, Nick W. | |
| dc.creator | Castillo-Chavez, Carlos | |
| dc.creator | Fenimore, Paul W. | |
| dc.creator | Hyman, J. M. | |
| dc.date | 2005-03-01 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-07T05:59:08Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-07-07T05:59:08Z | |
| dc.description | Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions ($R_0$). Our estimate of $R_0$ is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number $R_0$ to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyze the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a two-week delay in their implementation. | |
| dc.description | 27 pages, 7 figures | |
| dc.identifier | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503006 | |
| dc.identifier | http://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503006 | |
| dc.identifier | Journal of Theoretical Biology 229 (2004) | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/88566 | |
| dc.subject | Other Quantitative Biology | |
| dc.title | The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda | |
| dc.type | text |