Guessing the output of a stationary binary time series

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dc.creatorMorvai, Gusztav
dc.date2007-10-19
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T09:45:11Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T09:45:11Z
dc.descriptionThe forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process $\{X_n\}$. It is known that this is not possible if one estimates at all values of $n$. We present a simple procedure which will attempt to make such a prediction infinitely often at carefully selected stopping times chosen by the algorithm. The growth rate of the stopping times is also exhibited.
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0710.3760
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0710.3760
dc.identifierFoundations of statistical inference (Shoresh, 2000), 207--215, Contrib. Statist., Physica, Heidelberg, 2003
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/163116
dc.subjectProbability
dc.subjectInformation Theory
dc.titleGuessing the output of a stationary binary time series
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