Arrival Time Statistics in Global Disease Spread

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dc.creatorGautreau, Aurelien
dc.creatorBarrat, Alain
dc.creatorBarthelemy, Marc
dc.date2007-07-20
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T08:30:16Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T08:30:16Z
dc.descriptionMetapopulation models describing cities with different populations coupled by the travel of individuals are of great importance in the understanding of disease spread on a large scale. An important example is the Rvachev-Longini model [{\it Math. Biosci.} {\bf 75}, 3-22 (1985)] which is widely used in computational epidemiology. Few analytical results are however available and in particular little is known about paths followed by epidemics and disease arrival times. We study the arrival time of a disease in a city as a function of the starting seed of the epidemics. We propose an analytical Ansatz, test it in the case of a spreading on the world wide air transportation network, and show that it predicts accurately the arrival order of a disease in world-wide cities.
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3047
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/0707.3047
dc.identifierJ. Stat. Mech. (2007) L09001
dc.identifierdoi:10.1088/1742-5468/2007/09/L09001
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/138201
dc.subjectPopulations and Evolution
dc.titleArrival Time Statistics in Global Disease Spread
dc.typetext

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