Probabilistic forecasting of temperature: comments on the Bayesian Model Averaging approach

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dc.creatorJewson, Stephen
dc.date2004-09-24
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T05:52:44Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T05:52:44Z
dc.descriptionA specific implementation of Bayesian model averaging has recently been suggested as a method for the calibration of ensemble temperature forecasts. We point out the similarities between this new approach and an earlier method known as kernel regression. We also argue that the Bayesian model averaging method (as applied) has a number of flaws that would result in forecasts with suboptimally calibrated mean and uncertainty.
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0409127
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0409127
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/86417
dc.subjectAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics
dc.titleProbabilistic forecasting of temperature: comments on the Bayesian Model Averaging approach
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