Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature

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We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally predicting the number of US landfalling hurricanes based on the prediction of the number of basin hurricanes. We have described a number of SST prediction methods in previous work. We now investigate the empirical relationship between SST and basin hurricane numbers, and put this together with the SST predictions to make predictions of both basin and landfalling hurricane numbers.
In version 1 we just looked at the relationship between SST and basin hurricane numbers. In version 2 we now additionally use this relationship to convert SST forecasts to predictions of hurricane numbers

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

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http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/122792

Consulte el texto completo en el siguiente enlace:

https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701170
 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701170

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arXiv