Dynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes

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dc.creatorTabar, M. Reza Rahimi
dc.creatorSahimi, Muhammad
dc.creatorKaviani, K.
dc.creatorAllamehzadeh, M.
dc.creatorPeinke, J.
dc.creatorMokhtari, M.
dc.creatorVesaghi, M.
dc.creatorNiry, M. D.
dc.creatorGhasemi, F.
dc.creatorBahraminasab, A.
dc.creatorTabatabai, S.
dc.creatorFayazbakhsh, F.
dc.date2005-10-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T06:48:20Z
dc.date.available2026-07-07T06:48:20Z
dc.descriptionWe propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale $t_M$ increases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To distinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity, $T_1$, based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. $T_1$ also changes strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted if {\it both} $t_M$ and $T_1$ indicate it {\it simultaneously}. Calibrating the method with the data for one region provides a tool for predicting an impending earthquake within that region. Our analysis of the data for a large number of earthquakes indicate an essentially zero rate of failure for the method.
dc.description4 pages, 2 figures
dc.identifierhttps://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510043
dc.identifierhttp://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510043
dc.identifier.urihttp://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/103965
dc.subjectGeophysics
dc.subjectAdaptation and Self-Organizing Systems
dc.subjectData Analysis, Statistics and Probability
dc.titleDynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes
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