2026-07-072026-07-07http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/122791One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.Going from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paperAtmospheric and Oceanic Physicstext