2026-07-072026-07-07http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/189553In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes, and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.5 pages, 3 figures. v4: published version, misprints corrected (mu -> eta)High Energy Physics - TheoryAstrophysicsGeneral Relativity and Quantum CosmologyHigh Energy Physics - Phenomenologytext