2026-07-072026-07-07http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/85539We define the likelihood and give a number of justifications for its use as a skill measure for probabilistic forecasts. We describe a number of different scores based on the likelihood, and briefly investigate the relationships between the likelihood, the mean square error and the ignorance.Version 1 (3rd August 2003) contained some incorrect statements about the relationship between the likelihood and the Brier score. These have now been removedAtmospheric and Oceanic Physicstext