Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes

2026-07-072026-07-07http://salesiana.dossiersoluciones.com/handle/123456789/114438In previous work, we have shown how to combine long and short historical baselines to make predictions of future hurricane numbers. We now ask: how should such combinations change if we are interested in predicting the future number of intense hurricanes?Atmospheric and Oceanic PhysicsYear ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanestext