Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts
Abstract
Description
We define the likelihood and give a number of justifications for its use as a skill measure for probabilistic forecasts. We describe a number of different scores based on the likelihood, and briefly investigate the relationships between the likelihood, the mean square error and the ignorance.
Version 1 (3rd August 2003) contained some incorrect statements about the relationship between the likelihood and the Brier score. These have now been removed
Version 1 (3rd August 2003) contained some incorrect statements about the relationship between the likelihood and the Brier score. These have now been removed